Six hours before a contract closes, one side trades at 0.95: the market sees a 95% chance. A winning share pays 1 USD, so a buy at 0.95 gains about 5% before fees in a few hours. Near-Certainty Yield buys such sides with 25 USD per contract, never more than 100 USD at stake at once, and sells if the price falls to 0.80 before the close. The catch: a side that loses pays nothing, so one wrong result can take the gains of many right ones.
What it costs
This strategy is open on every plan. What it trades is fixed by its design, so every plan runs the same scope; Standard is free.
Recommended minimum vault: Elite · See all store pricing →
How it works
Within the hours you choose before the close time you enter, while the best bid is at or above your minimum probability and the best ask is at or below your highest price, the strategy places one bid at the top of the book. It holds the shares to the result, which Kalshi pays out by itself. It stops bidding once the shares the vault holds plus one more contract would pass your limit, and before the close it sells at the best bid if the price falls to your stop, and does not buy that contract again. Several outcomes that close at the same time can be listed, each with the budget per contract.
Key Features
Strategy profile
A snapshot of how this strategy behaves and who it suits, not a forecast of returns.
These are our assessments of strategy character, not user-specific performance figures.
Most buys win a few cents; a rare loss costs the whole stake of that contract, and the market's 95% is not a promise. Results can turn late on a surprise, and the stop only helps while the market is open and has bids. Open bids are not counted toward the cap, so bids filling together can pass it. You enter the close date and time yourself, so check them against the contract.
All figures on this page are simulated or historical backtest results, shown for information and education only. They are not real customer results, they do not include your specific fees and slippage, and past performance does not guarantee future returns. Your capital is at risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
Quick glossary
Definitions for the trading terms used on this page.
- Backtest
- A simulation of how a strategy would have performed on historical price data. Past results never guarantee future returns - markets change.
- Slippage
- The difference between the price you expect and the price you actually get when an order fills. Worse on illiquid pairs and during fast markets.
- Spread
- The gap between the best buy price (bid) and the best sell price (ask). Tight spreads = liquid market, wider spreads = more cost per round trip.
- Stop-loss
- An automatic exit order that closes a losing position when price hits a chosen threshold. Caps how much one bad trade can hurt you.
- Take-profit
- An automatic exit order that closes a winning position once price reaches a chosen target. Locks in gains without relying on you to watch the chart.
- Volatility
- How sharply price moves. High volatility = bigger swings in both directions, which means more opportunity but also more drawdown risk.
Want to collect the last few cents?
Every new Prediction Near-Certainty Yield starts in paper trading: its orders are kept on paper and never fill, and a paper run stops by itself one hour after each start.
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