Long-dated contracts sometimes drop sharply on a rumour or one large seller, then drift back. Overreaction Reversal waits for a fall of 8% within 15 minutes, buys in three steps below the best bid with more on the deeper ones, and sells once the price is 4% above its average buy price. It never buys below 0.15 or above 0.85, where the market is pricing the result rather than doubt.
What it costs
This strategy is open on every plan. What it trades is fixed by its design, so every plan runs the same scope; Standard is free.
Recommended minimum vault: Elite · See all store pricing →
How it works
Every round the strategy measures the contract's price against its level 15 minutes earlier. When it has fallen by your drop, it places 3 buy orders below the best bid, with more of the budget on the deeper ones, and sells once the price is up by your recovery target over its average buy price. It never buys outside the probability band you set. From the stop date you pick it cancels its bids, sells what it holds and buys no more.
Key Features
Strategy profile
A snapshot of how this strategy behaves and who it suits, not a forecast of returns.
These are our assessments of strategy character, not user-specific performance figures.
Sometimes the drop is the news and the price does not come back: a real change in the odds looks the same as an overreaction in the first 15 minutes. Then the shares are held at a loss until the stop date sells them, or lose everything at a result against them. Rebounds on these markets are usually small, so large targets are rarely reached. Keep the budget small.
All figures on this page are simulated or historical backtest results, shown for information and education only. They are not real customer results, they do not include your specific fees and slippage, and past performance does not guarantee future returns. Your capital is at risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
Quick glossary
Definitions for the trading terms used on this page.
- Backtest
- A simulation of how a strategy would have performed on historical price data. Past results never guarantee future returns - markets change.
- Slippage
- The difference between the price you expect and the price you actually get when an order fills. Worse on illiquid pairs and during fast markets.
- Spread
- The gap between the best buy price (bid) and the best sell price (ask). Tight spreads = liquid market, wider spreads = more cost per round trip.
- Stop-loss
- An automatic exit order that closes a losing position when price hits a chosen threshold. Caps how much one bad trade can hurt you.
- Take-profit
- An automatic exit order that closes a winning position once price reaches a chosen target. Locks in gains without relying on you to watch the chart.
- Volatility
- How sharply price moves. High volatility = bigger swings in both directions, which means more opportunity but also more drawdown risk.
Think the market overreacted?
Every new Prediction Overreaction Reversal starts in paper trading: its orders are kept on paper and never fill, and a paper run stops by itself one hour after each start.
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