Exactly one of Yes and No pays 1 at the result. If a Yes share costs 0.46 and a No share 0.51, the pair costs 0.97 and pays 1: a 3 cent gain whichever side wins. Yes + No Box buys such pairs while the two best asks, with the taker fee, cost no more than 0.98, aiming at the same number of shares on both sides, and holds them to the result.
What it costs
This strategy is open on every plan. What it trades is fixed by its design, so every plan runs the same scope; Standard is free.
Recommended minimum vault: Elite · See all store pricing →
How it works
The strategy buys both sides of one market. It buys only while the two best asks together, with the taker fee the venue reports added, are at or below your highest pair price, and only when both best asks hold enough shares for the rest of the box. Each side is bought at its best ask, aiming at the same number of shares on both, up to your box payout. Both sides are then held to the result; it never sells. If only one side fills and the prices move away, it holds that side alone until the box can be finished.
Key Features
Strategy profile
A snapshot of how this strategy behaves and who it suits, not a forecast of returns.
These are our assessments of strategy character, not user-specific performance figures.
The gain is locked in only when both sides are filled in equal numbers. If one side fills and the other's price moves away, you hold a plain bet on one outcome until the box can be finished. Pairs under 1 are rare and usually short-lived, and fees eat most of a small gap.
All figures on this page are simulated or historical backtest results, shown for information and education only. They are not real customer results, they do not include your specific fees and slippage, and past performance does not guarantee future returns. Your capital is at risk.
Frequently Asked Questions
Quick glossary
Definitions for the trading terms used on this page.
- Backtest
- A simulation of how a strategy would have performed on historical price data. Past results never guarantee future returns - markets change.
- Slippage
- The difference between the price you expect and the price you actually get when an order fills. Worse on illiquid pairs and during fast markets.
- Spread
- The gap between the best buy price (bid) and the best sell price (ask). Tight spreads = liquid market, wider spreads = more cost per round trip.
- Stop-loss
- An automatic exit order that closes a losing position when price hits a chosen threshold. Caps how much one bad trade can hurt you.
- Take-profit
- An automatic exit order that closes a winning position once price reaches a chosen target. Locks in gains without relying on you to watch the chart.
- Volatility
- How sharply price moves. High volatility = bigger swings in both directions, which means more opportunity but also more drawdown risk.
Want a gain locked in at the start?
Every new Prediction Yes + No Box starts in paper trading: its orders are kept on paper and never fill, and a paper run stops by itself one hour after each start.
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